NFL Bets Sunday 12-10-2017

I like the over 38 in the Colts/Bills Game.  I’m expecting a score of about 44.  The rest of the over/unders this week look pretty much spot on.

I also like the Packers -3 over the Browns.  The Packers lines seem really undervalued so far this season.  I have the packers winning the game by 4.5.  A line being off by only a point and half doesn’t seem like the one to bet on but the Browns have flown under all possible expectations this season.

I have the Bengals beating the bears by less than 2.5.  The Bears are going off at +6.  Tempting bet here.

Ravens are getting +5 and I actually have them beating the Steelers by just under a point.  The game is @ Steelers and the temperatures are Arctic but I still like this one.

Jets -1.5 over the Broncos also looks tempting.  I have them winning by at least 4.

In order I’d go:

Packers -3 over the Browns.  Lock

Over 38 Colts/Bills.  Lean

Bears + 6 over the Bengals.  Gamblers choice.  Bad on the road, numbers on their side.

Jets -1.5 over the Broncos.  Gamblers choice.  Bad on the road, numbers on their side.

Ravens +5 over the Steelers.  Gamblers choice.  Bad on the road, numbers on their side.

Stick to the first two bets.  Maybe spice it up with whichever gamblers choice you’re feeling.  They’re all on the road in tough spots but their season numbers say they’re good bets.

-Dan

Podcast Stats So Far

Plays on Soundcloud: 155,448

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Episodes Posted:  81

Episodes Recorded: 83

First Episode Recorded: 2-22-2017

Most Recent Episode Recorded: 12-4-2017

Podcast Live for: 288 days

A New Episode Comes Out Every: 3.47 Days

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NFL Bets, Sunday 12-3

A lot of the games this week are literal pick ’ems.  As usual by this point in the season, most of the lines are spot on.  Here’s the few that look off to me, in order.

I have the Texans beating the Titans by 1.2 points.  The Titans however are -7.  I’ll rush to take Texans +7.  The Texans on the moneyline are getting +250.  That’s tempting, if you really want to gamble with room for value, consider it.  I don’t have shit for cash.  I’m sticking to what looks to me like a conservative lock.  Texans +7 -110.

I have the Vikings beating the falcons by a point and half.  The Falcons are -3.  I’ll take the Vikings +3.  The price of this bet is fairly steep but I still think the wrong team is favored in several ways.  Use your best judgment here.

The Browns are +14 against the Chargers.  I have them losing the game by just under 8.  Just by the numbers this looks like a bigger mismatch than Vikings v. Falcons.  You don’t want the browns on your ticket but at the same time the numbers beg for you to take them.  DON’T BET THIS GAME AT ALL.  IT’S A TRAP!

Most value this week is definitely the Texans.  If you’re the type to bitch about a losing pick, stick to that game.

Good luck,

Dan

 

NFL Bets, Sunday 11-25

I see three tempting bets for tomorrow.  Two dogs and a favorite.  Listed in terms of confidence.

First I like the Packers +14 over the Steelers, -105.  I think the Packers will lose by about 4.5.  Plenty of wiggle room there.

First I like the Bucs +10 over the Falcons -105.  Very similar bet.  I don’t see the Bucs winning the game but I do see them losing by about 3.  That’ll be good enough.

Third, I’d take the Jaguars -5.5 over the Cardinals -110.  I have the Jags winning this game by just over 9 points.  Least confident of these three bets.  In general I prefer betting value dogs.  This one has the least margin of error and at -110 I’m paying the highest price.

Good luck all,

Dan

The House Movement Massive Skyway Party

Last Saturday night and Sunday morning was the Massive Skyway Party.  Tony and I made our way down there to meet up with a friend or two and make dozens of new ones.  This was an old school rave if ever there was one.  On an island right before the Sunshine Skyway Bridge in St Petersburg Florida.  No admission, no security, and 28 DJs over a 14 hour period.  Like any good rave it wasn’t completely clear how to get there.  Unlike most raves, thousands of people were invited on Facebook.  We hung out from about 10pm to 3:30am.  We traded complimentary bottles of water for cool stories live on the podcast.  We met some awesome people and heard some great stories.  My car got stuck in sand, Tony got it out.  Lots of helpful people everywhere.  No fights, no thefts, no arrests and I honestly didn’t even see a single person crying.  Well over 1500 people showed up at one point or another during the night.  Even though the cast will be over three hours long this one will be a can’t miss.  Available tomorrow, 11-23-2017, Thanksgiving Day, wherever fine podcasts can be found.

Your Pal

Dan

The Last of JV

Palm Harbor played their 6th and final JV game of the season against Countryside on Friday Oct 20th.  A lot of interesting things to say about this game.  First Countryside has an incredible defense for a JV team, probably even a little bit better than Palm Harbor.  I really can’t believe the game was as high scoring as it was.  It’s worth pointing out that at least 3 of the 7 touchdowns in the game came by way of kick returns.  This has been a common thread in every JV game we’ve seen.  Low level punters combined with lackluster special teams defense has had us see scoring within the first two minutes of all 6 JV games we attended.

This really was a game of defense even though it saw 7 touch downs total.  Regulation ended with a tie of 20-20.  At the high school level there is a back and forth overtime where each side starts at the opposite 10 yard line with a full set of downs to try and make a touchdown.  If they get a touchdown their opponent has a shot until  one of them doesn’t make it.  Countryside started over time with the ball but Palm Harbor managed to stop them short.  Palm Harbor got the ball but made no gain on Countryside.  Countryside got the ball and scored on the second down, extra point was good.  Palm Harbor got the ball and was stopped short of the five yard line.  27-20 Countryside.

The JV season is now over.  Two games were cancelled due to Hurricane Irma, the JV season is supposed to be 8 games.  The good news is our protege Lu was promoted up to the Palm Harbor varsity team which has two or three more games.  Hopefully he’ll see some playing time this Friday against Durant.  Varsity is pretty much getting their ass kicked this year, is out of the playoff picture and hopefully has some room for Lu so he can get some game time.  He’s likely to be a varsity starter from game one next year.

Palm Harbor JV Football 2017 Fall Season

Game 1: Palm Harbor 38 vs Tarpon 0

Game 2: Palm Harbor 41 vs Seminole 6

Game 3: Palm Harbor 17 vs Northeast 0

Game 4: Palm Harbor 0 vs East Lake 6

Game 5: Palm Harbor 21 vs Largo 8

Game 6:  Palm Harbor 20 vs Countryside 27

Season Totals: Palm Harbor 137 vs Opponents 47

Palm Harbor averaged 22.83 points per game.  Their opponents averaged 7.83 points per game.

Don’t Call It a Come Back

Palm Harbor faced Largo tonight at home.  Their defense managed to recover a fumble and one of the defensive tackles ran it in for a touchdown.  Largo managed to score on their second punt return after one of Palm Harbors blockers slipped and fell.  The rest of the second half was a showing of great defense from both teams.  Our man Lu was positioned up against #76 for Largo, the biggest JV football player we’ve seen yet.  At least 6’3 and over 300 pounds of muscle.  He managed to beat Lu pretty bad at the end of the second quarter and Lu was benched while they figured him out.  The whole Palm Harbor team came back from half time changed and they scored twice more.  Once with a two point conversion.  Lu did a killer job the whole second half, totally keeping his man locked down.  He played on every snap of the second half.  Only a few more games left for Palm Harbor.

Game 5:

Palm Harbor 21 – Largo 8

 

Game 1: Palm Harbor 38 vs Tarpon 0

Game 2: Palm Harbor 41 vs Seminole 6

Game 3: Palm Harbor 17 vs Northeast 0

Game 4: Palm Harbor 0 vs East Lake 6

Game 5: Palm Harbor 21 vs Largo 8

Season Totals: Palm Harbor 117 vs Opponents 20

Palm Harbor is averaging 23.4 points per game.  Their opponents are averaging 4 points per game.

The First L

Palm Harbor JV Football dropped last night’s game at East Lake.  The final score was 6-0.  Palm Harbor’s defense took their job as seriously as always but East Lake did better than the other schools at breaking into their secondary.  The defense had an amazing play where they blocked a field goal that would have put the game out of reach.  The offense on the other hand could not move the ball very far at all.  This game they leaned more on runs up the middle to almost no effect.  The few solid moves Palm Harbor made were on 25+ yard passes.  The passing game wasn’t all roses though as at least 3 passes just dribbled out of the quarter backs hand.  One of those resulted in an interception and the offense was responsible for two fumbles as well.  On the last drive of the game with 15 yards to go Palm Harbor could not convert a 4th and 1.  All told they just didn’t take the game or their opponents seriously enough.  Even though East Lake is their rival they heard East Lake was seriously battered by Tarpon, who Palm Harbor wiped the field with.  They thought they were going to win so badly that they didn’t even bother to score a point.  Compare this to their last game against Northeast (A better team than East Lake) where they knew how tough their opponents would be and prepared for it.  The lesson for everyone is that underestimating your enemy is a fatal flaw.  A mistake you won’t get too many chances to repeat.  Hopefully the coaching staff is able to wrangle the players and get them to take every game as seriously as the next.  If they fix their mindset, to include “no such thing as a sure thing”, this might be their only loss.  Here’s hoping.

Game 1: Palm Harbor 38 vs Tarpon 0

Game 2: Palm Harbor 41 vs Seminole 6

Game 3: Palm Harbor 17 vs Northeast 0

Game 4: East Lake 6 vs Palm Harbor 0

Palm Harbor 3-1

Total Score: Palm Harbor 96 vs Opponents- 12

Football Update & Our Book

So first we’ve gotta keep you updated on Palm Harbor JV football.

Game 1: Palm Harbor 38 vs Tarpon 0

Game 2: Palm Harbor 41 vs Seminole 6

Game 3: Palm Harbor 17 vs Northeast 0

So far they’ve outscored their opponents 96 to 6.  Their defense is insane.  They kicked well last night.  We’re seeing most of these JV teams having trouble kicking the ball.  Two games were cancelled because of Hurricane Irma so game 3 really should have been their game 5.  Hopefully at least one of these games will be made up.  In game 2 once they were up by 35, the first string offense came out and they played our boy Lu as nose tackle for the rest of the game.  On his second play he ran over the opposing center.  What a beast.  Game 4 is Thursday 10-5-2017 at East Lake High School.

Also in the podcast news we’re working on publishing our first nonfiction work.  A guide for JITs 12-22 that want to be the best people possible.  How to act, how to learn, how to party,  how to be cool, how to make friends, how to deal with girls, how to run your own business, how to deal with cops and so much more.  First draft writing is already well underway and we should be able to get copies out as early as next summer.  We’ll keep you updated as progress continues.

Update on Everything: Football, The Hurricane & The Podcast

First and most importantly, Palm Harbor beat Tarpon 38-0.  Our man Lu did a fine job.  His pass blocking was solid.  Nobody got by him, nobody was getting by him.  He’s got a lot to figure out when it comes to run blocking but he did great.  He was in the game for all but two or three plays.  Their second game, supposed to be 9-7-2017 at Clearwater, was cancelled over premature fears of Hurricane Irma.

That’s where we stand.  The hurricane gets here tonight.  Most businesses have been closed for two or three days.  Mandatory evacuations of low lying areas began two days ago.  Evacuations were upgraded yesterday.  The dog track, which normally won’t stop for even severe lightning, has been closed since Wednesday night, when the storm was over 1000 miles away.  Hopefully they’re moving the dogs to higher ground.  Personally I don’t think the storm will cause much damage, but Derby Lane is in the severe storm surge zone.  We already lost power last night in light rain.  It’s overwhelmingly likely that we’ll lose power again for a longer period as they won’t dispatch repair crews in the storm.  You might not hear from the podcast for a few days.   Probably back on Wednesday, 9-13-2017.  I gotta hope at the latest we check in by 9-14, Lu’s “third” game at home against Countryside.  It’s unclear right now what next week will look like.  It could be normal starting Tuesday or it could be chaos.  I’m betting normal.  Right now every episode has been uploaded in the event of a longer power outage or local data loss.

Tony is in a non evacuation zone (safe) with all the windows all boarded up.  Dan is in a solid house in a low danger evacuation zone.  An evacuation is very unlikely to be called for that zone.  Both have essential supplies and should be assumed safe, even in terrible conditions.  We don’t really know about Nic, beyond that he was making sales as of last night.  More than most businesses have stayed open.  All of the other characters you’ve come to know on the podcast are accounted for.  Most have safely evacuated to local high ground.  Everyone will be fine, the biggest worry is that one of their uninsured cars get fucked up.  Pray for our cars, the greyhounds, and other animals.

-Your Friend

Dan